A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
