Moving from Reluctant Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A unexpected operation against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force declares its intention to govern indefinitely.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that front far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”