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Only two days before the New York mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold forecast – going beyond who would win citywide, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in the city, devoted more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of local celebrity this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win while missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, his platform. He has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters favored the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

It was necessary since they were dropping around 200,000 ballots into the tally frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but came two big batches of votes added after that and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world where election day went somewhat badly for him, where the opponent would have essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However the winner gained 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the primary. Plus he further maximized his base of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, young, renters and people squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It is a real thing, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump previously went for Zohran now. However it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought we might exceed two million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial opposition group, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to get over 50%. He has 50.4% but there’s still around 200K ballots left to report at that time. So it’s not certain, but I believe probable, and I hope he achieves it so afterwards none can claim Sliwa was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Including Tottenville in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump neighborhood. That really was unexpected. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and then added all of these Republicans on the island with a strong turnout. I believe occurred a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. This happened before Trump endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for the candidate dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

I think there was some weakening of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and homeowners all went for Cuomo. Thus there was a little resistance. But overall, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on whether the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential there. Similarly in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. And also, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly supportive. So it’s unclear if there were major surprises on this one, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will commie corridor become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see more of that – people will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that every city in America could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of progressive influence in America – because youth reside there, tenancy is common and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the inequalities exist.